The plasma kynurenine-to-tryptophan ratio as a biomarker of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy: an exploratory nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Non-sputum-based tests are needed to predict or diagnose tuberculosis (TB) disease in people living with HIV (PWH). The enzyme indoleamine 2, 3-dioxygenase-1 (IDO1) is expressed in tuberculoid granuloma and catabolizes tryptophan (Trp) to kynurenine (Kyn). IDO1 activity compromises innate and adaptive immune responses, promoting mycobacterial survival. The plasma Kyn-to-Trp (K/T) ratio is a potential TB diagnostic and/or predictive biomarker in PWH on long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We compared plasma K/T ratios in samples from PWH, who were followed up prospectively and developed TB disease after ART initiation. Controls were matched for age and duration of ART. Kyn and Trp were measured at 3 timepoints; at TB diagnosis, 6 months before TB diagnosis and 6 months after TB diagnosis, using ultra performance liquid chromatography combined with mass spectrometry. RESULTS: The K/T ratios were higher for patients with TB disease at time of diagnosis (median, 0.086; IQR, 0.069-0.123) compared to controls (0.055; IQR 0.045-0.064; p = 0.006), but not before or after TB diagnosis. K/T ratios significantly declined after successful TB treatment, but increased upon treatment failure. The K/T ratios showed a parabolic correlation with CD4 cell counts in participants with TB (p = 0.005), but there was no correlation in controls. CONCLUSIONS: The plasma K/T ratio helped identify TB disease and may serve as an adjunctive biomarker for for monitoring TB treatment in PWH. Validation studies to ascertain these findings and evaluate the optimum cut-off for diagnosis of TB disease in PWH should be undertaken in well-designed prospective cohorts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00411983.

Monocyte to lymphocyte ratio and hemoglobin level to predict tuberculosis after antiretroviral therapy initiation.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the performance of the baseline monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), baseline anemia severity and combination of these biomarkers, to predict tuberculosis (TB) incidence in people with HIV (PWH) after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. DESIGN: Multicenter, retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We utilized the data from study A5175 (Prospective Evaluation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Resource-limited Settings: PEARLS). We assessed the utility of MLR, anemia severity and in combination, for predicting TB in the first year after ART. Cox regression was used to assess associations of MLR and anemia with incident TB. Harrell's C index was used to describe single model discrimination. RESULTS: A total of 1455 participants with a median age of 34 [interquartile range (IQR) 29, 41] were included. Fifty-four participants were diagnosed with TB. The hazard ratio (HR) for incident TB was 1.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-3.07]; P  = 0.04 for those with MLR ≥0.23. The HR for mild/mod anemia was 3.35 (95% CI 1.78-6.29; P  < 0.001) and 18.16 (95% CI 5.17-63.77; P  < 0.001) for severe anemia. After combining parameters, there were increases in adjusted HR (aHR) for MLR ≥0.23 to 1.83 (95% CI 1.05-3.18), and degrees of anemia to 3.38 (95% CI 1.80-6.35) for mild/mod anemia and 19.09 (95% CI 5.43-67.12) for severe anemia. CONCLUSIONS: MLR and hemoglobin levels which are available in routine HIV care can be used at ART initiation for identifying patients at high risk of developing TB disease to guide diagnostic and management decisions.

Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys.

Background: Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare. Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of Mtb infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease. We collated individual-level data on representative populations for analysis and used literature on the relative durations of subclinical and clinical TB to estimate relative infectiousness through a cumulative hazard model, accounting for sputum-smear status. Relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical disease in high-burden settings was used to estimate the contribution of subclinical TB to global Mtb transmission. Results: We collated data on 414 index cases and 789 household contacts from three prevalence surveys (Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Viet Nam) and one case-finding trial in Viet Nam. The odds ratio for infection in a household with a clinical versus subclinical index case (irrespective of sputum smear status) was 1.2 (0.6-2.3, 95% confidence interval). Adjusting for duration of disease, we found a per-unit-time infectiousness of subclinical TB relative to clinical TB of 1.93 (0.62-6.18, 95% prediction interval [PrI]). Fourteen countries across Asia and Africa provided data on relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical TB, suggesting an estimated 68% (27-92%, 95% PrI) of global transmission is from subclinical TB. Conclusions: Our results suggest that subclinical TB contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards TB elimination. Funding: JCE, KCH, ASR, NS, and RH have received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Starting Grant No. 757699) KCH is also supported by UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH); however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P022081/1); this UK-funded award is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0).

Reasons for using traditional and complementary care by people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy and association with interrupted care: a mixed methods study in Eswatini.

The use of traditional, complementary, and alternative medicine (TCAM) can lead to delays and interruptions in the HIV continuum of care. This study explores reasons for TCAM use in people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Eswatini and compares interrupted care between different types of TCAM users. Data were collected using surveys in the MaxART study (a test-and-treat trial) between 2014 and 2017 to assess the exposure, namely visiting a TCAM provider. Additionally, visit dates were retrieved from clinic records to assess the outcome, interrupted care. Open-ended questions were analysed with qualitative content analysis (n = 602) and closed questions with bivariable and multivariable analysis (n = 202). Out of 202 participants, 145 (72%) never used TCAM, 40 (20%) ever used, and 17 (8%) is currently using TCAM (diviners, herbalists, and religious healers). No differences in interrupted care were found comparing never (reference category), past (Odds Ratio: 1.31, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-2.72), and current users (1.34, 0.47-3.77), while adjusting for gender, time since HIV diagnosis, and time on ART. Contextual factors affecting the choice for TCAM were the influence of family, advice from the health facility, and religious beliefs. Individual factors include trust in biomedical care, type of illness, no need for additional care, and practical reasons such as financial means. In conclusion, individual and contextual factors influence the choice for TCAM. Interrupted care does not differ between never, past, and current users.

Strengthening primary care for diabetes and hypertension in Eswatini: study protocol for a nationwide cluster-randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and hypertension are increasingly important population health challenges in Eswatini. Prior to this project, healthcare for these conditions was primarily provided through physician-led teams at tertiary care facilities and accessed by only a small fraction of people living with diabetes or hypertension. This trial tests and evaluates two community-based healthcare service models implemented at the national level, which involve health care personnel at primary care facilities and utilize the country's public sector community health worker cadre (the rural health motivators [RHMs]) to help generate demand for care. METHODS: This study is a cluster-randomized controlled trial with two treatment arms and one control arm. The unit of randomization is a primary healthcare facility along with all RHMs (and their corresponding service areas) assigned to the facility. A total of 84 primary healthcare facilities were randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to the three study arms. The first treatment arm implements differentiated service delivery (DSD) models at the clinic and community levels with the objective of improving treatment uptake and adherence among clients with diabetes or hypertension. In the second treatment arm, community distribution points (CDPs), which previously targeted clients living with human immunodeficiency virus, extend their services to clients with diabetes or hypertension by allowing them to pick up medications and obtain routine nurse-led follow-up visits in their community rather than at the healthcare facility. In both treatment arms, RHMs visit households regularly, screen clients at risk, provide personalized counseling, and refer clients to either primary care clinics or the nearest CDP. In the control arm, primary care clinics provide diabetes and hypertension care services but without the involvement of RHMs and the implementation of DSD models or CDPs. The primary endpoints are mean glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and systolic blood pressure among adults aged 40 years and older living with diabetes or hypertension, respectively. These endpoints will be assessed through a household survey in the RHM service areas. In addition to the health impact evaluation, we will conduct studies on cost-effectiveness, syndemics, and the intervention's implementation processes. DISCUSSION: This study has the ambition to assist the Eswatini government in selecting the most effective delivery model for diabetes and hypertension care. The evidence generated with this national-level cluster-randomized controlled trial may also prove useful to policy makers in the wider Sub-Saharan African region. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04183413. Trial registration date: December 3, 2019.

Clinical implications of molecular drug resistance testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a 2023 TBnet/RESIST-TB consensus statement.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis is a substantial health-care concern worldwide. Despite culture-based methods being considered the gold standard for drug susceptibility testing, molecular methods provide rapid information about the Mycobacterium tuberculosis mutations associated with resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs. This consensus document was developed on the basis of a comprehensive literature search, by the TBnet and RESIST-TB networks, about reporting standards for the clinical use of molecular drug susceptibility testing. Review and the search for evidence included hand-searching journals and searching electronic databases. The panel identified studies that linked mutations in genomic regions of M tuberculosis with treatment outcome data. Implementation of molecular testing for the prediction of drug resistance in M tuberculosis is key. Detection of mutations in clinical isolates has implications for the clinical management of patients with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis, especially in situations when phenotypic drug susceptibility testing is not available. A multidisciplinary team including clinicians, microbiologists, and laboratory scientists reached a consensus on key questions relevant to molecular prediction of drug susceptibility or resistance to M tuberculosis, and their implications for clinical practice. This consensus document should help clinicians in the management of patients with tuberculosis, providing guidance for the design of treatment regimens and optimising outcomes.

Predictive performance of interferon-gamma release assays and the tuberculin skin test for incident tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Evidence on the comparative performance of purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests (TST) and interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for predicting incident active tuberculosis (TB) remains conflicting. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to directly compare the predictive performance for incident TB disease between TST and IGRA to inform policy. Methods: We searched Medline and Embase from 1 January 2002 to 4 September 2020, and studies that were included in previous systematic reviews. We included prospective longitudinal studies in which participants received both TST and IGRA and estimated performance as hazard ratios (HR) for the development of all diagnoses of TB in participants with dichotomised positive test results compared to negative results, using different thresholds of positivity for TST. Secondary analyses included an evaluation of the impact of background TB incidence. We also estimated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting TB. We explored heterogeneity through pre-defined sub-group analyses (e.g. country-level TB incidence). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020205667. Findings: We obtained data from 13 studies out of 40 that were considered eligible (N = 32,034 participants: 36% from countries with TB incidence rate ≥100 per 100,000 population). All reported data on TST and QuantiFERON Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT). The point estimate for the TST was highest with higher cut-offs for positivity and particularly when stratified by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) status (15 mm if BCG vaccinated and 5 mm if not [TST5/15 mm]) at 2.88 (95% CI 1.69-4.90). The pooled HR for QFT-GIT was higher than for TST at 4.15 (95% CI 1.97-8.75). The difference was large in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population (HR 10.38, 95% CI 4.17-25.87 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 5.36, 95% CI 3.82-7.51 for TST5/15 mm) but much of this difference was driven by a single study (HR 5.13, 95% CI 3.58-7.35 for TST5/15 mm VS. 7.18, 95% CI 4.48-11.51 for QFT-GIT, when excluding the study, in which all 19 TB cases had positive QFT-GIT results). The comparative performance was similar in the higher burden countries (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.23-2.10 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 1.72, 95% CI 0.98-3.01 for TST5/15 mm). The predictive performance of both tests was higher in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population. In the lower TB incidence countries, the specificity of TST (76% for TST5/15 mm) and QFT-GIT (74%) for predicting active TB approached the minimum World Health Organization target (≥75%), but the sensitivity was below the target of ≥75% (63% for TST5/15 mm and 65% for QFT-GIT). The absolute differences in positive and negative predictive values between TST15 mm and QFT-GIT were small (positive predictive values 2.74% VS. 2.46%; negative predictive values 99.42% VS. 99.52% in low-incidence countries). Egger's test did not show evidence of publication bias (0.74 for TST15 mm and p = 0.68 for QFT-GIT). Interpretation: IGRA appears to have higher predictive performance than the TST in low TB incidence countries, but the difference was driven by a single study. Any advantage in clinical performance may be small, given the numerically similar positive and negative predictive values. Both IGRA and TST had lower performance in countries with high TB incidence. Test choice should be contextual and made considering operational and likely clinical impact of test results. Funding: YH, IA, and MXR were supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), United Kingdom (RP-PG-0217-20009). MQ was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC_UU_00004/07].

Unbiased antimicrobial resistance prevalence estimates through population-based surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Current antimicrobial resistance surveillance (AMR) is mainly laboratory based. This approach can have inherent biases given the potential for selective specimen submission for microbiological analysis and for its inability to map antibiotic susceptibility test results to a clinical syndrome. OBJECTIVES: To discuss the need for population-based surveillance of AMR, and highlight the pros and cons of threshold surveys. SOURCES: Studies on methodology for AMR surveillance published in the last 10 years, obtained through a PubMed search on antimicrobial resistance (all fields) and surveillance/method (MeSH term). CONTENT: We discuss the use of threshold surveys to overcome the challenge of sample size in population-bases AMR surveys, which are a suitable approach in both low- and high-resource settings. IMPLICATIONS: Scale up in the use of population-based threshold survey on the prevalence of AMR will provide necessary information to triangulate the data from routinely-reported laboratory-based AMR surveillance at the local, national, and global level.

Availability and costs of medicines for the treatment of tuberculosis in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the access to comprehensive diagnostics and novel antituberculosis medicines in European countries. METHODS: We investigated the access to genotypic and phenotypic Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing and the availability of antituberculosis drugs and calculated the cost of drugs and treatment regimens at major tuberculosis treatment centres in countries of the WHO European region where rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis are the highest among all WHO regions. Results were stratified by middle-income and high-income countries. RESULTS: Overall, 43 treatment centres from 43 countries participated in the study. For WHO group A drugs, the frequency of countries with the availability of phenotypic drug susceptibility testing was as follows: (a) 75% (30/40) for levofloxacin, (b) 82% (33/40) for moxifloxacin, (c) 48% (19/40) for bedaquiline, and (d) 72% (29/40) for linezolid. Overall, of the 43 countries, 36 (84%) and 24 (56%) countries had access to bedaquiline and delamanid, respectively, whereas only 6 (14%) countries had access to rifapentine. The treatment of patients with extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis with a regimen including a carbapenem was available only in 17 (40%) of the 43 countries. The median cost of regimens for drug-susceptible tuberculosis, multidrug-resistant/rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (shorter regimen, including bedaquiline for 6 months), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (including bedaquiline, delamanid, and a carbapenem) were €44 (minimum-maximum, €15-152), €764 (minimum-maximum, €542-15152), and €8709 (minimum-maximum, €7965-11759) in middle-income countries (n = 12) and €280 (minimum-maximum, €78-1084), €29765 (minimum-maximum, €11116-40584), and €217591 (minimum-maximum, €82827-320146) in high-income countries (n = 29), respectively. DISCUSSION: In countries of the WHO European region, there is a widespread lack of drug susceptibility testing capacity to new and repurposed antituberculosis drugs, lack of access to essential medications in several countries, and a high cost for the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Reasons for, and factors associated with, positive HIV retesting: a cross-sectional study in Eswatini.

Eswatini has a high HIV prevalence but has made progress towards improving HIV-status awareness, ART uptake and viral suppression. However, there is still a delay in ART initiation, which could partly be attributed to positive HIV-retesting. This study examines reasons for, and factors associated with, positive HIV-retesting among MaxART participants in Eswatini. Data from 601 participants is included in this cross-sectional study. Descriptive statistics and logistic regressions were used. Of the participants, 32.8% has ever retested after a previous positive result. Most participants who retested did this because they could not accept their results (61.9% of all retesters). Other main reasons are related to external influences, gender or the progression of their HIV infection (respectively 18.3%, 10.2%, and 6.1% of all retesters). Participants without a current partner and participants with less time since their first positive test have lower odds of retesting. To decrease retesting and reduce the delay in ART initiation resulting from it, efforts could be made on increasing the acceptance of positive HIV results. Providing more information on the process of testing and importance of early ART initiation, could be part of the solution.

Neighbourhood risk factors of recurrent tuberculosis in Cape Town: a cohort study using geocoded notification data.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with a history of tuberculosis (TB) disease are at higher risk of developing a subsequent episode than those without. Considering the role of social and environmental factors in tuberculosis, we assessed neighbourhood-level risk factors associated with recurrent tuberculosis in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS: This cohort consisted of patients who completed treatment for their first drug-sensitive TB episode between 2003 and 2015. Addresses were geocoded at neighbourhood level. Data on neighbourhood-level factors were obtained from the Census 2011 (household size, population density) and the City of Cape Town (Socio-Economic Index). Neighbourhood-level TB burden was calculated annually by dividing the number of notified TB episodes by the population in that neighbourhood. Multilevel survival analysis was performed with the outcome recurrent TB, defined as a second episode of TB, and controlling for individual-level risk factors (age, gender and time since first episode in years). Follow-up ended at the second episode, or on 31 December 2015, whichever came first. RESULTS: The study included 173 421 patients from 700 neighbourhoods. Higher Socio-Economic Index was associated with a lower risk of recurrence compared with average Socio-Economic Index. An increased risk was found for higher household size and TB burden, with an increase of 20% for every additional person in mean household size and 10% for every additional TB episode/100 inhabitants. No association was found with population density. CONCLUSION: Recurrent TB was associated with increased household size and TB burden at neighbourhood level. These findings could be used to target TB screening activities.

Incidence and factors associated with active tuberculosis among people living with HIV after long-term antiretroviral therapy in Thailand: a competing risk model.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is known to reduce tuberculosis (TB) incidence among people living with HIV (PLWH). However, studies describing the impact of long-term ART and CD4 count recovery on TB incidence remain scarce due to limited follow up in previous studies. We evaluated TB incidence in a long-term cohort of PLWH on ART in Thailand. METHODS: We conducted an analysis of PLWH aged ≥ 18 years who started ART between 1996 and December 2020. Participants were followed up every 6 months for routine HIV care. TB risk factors, body mass index (BMI), physical examination and full differential blood counts were evaluated at each clinic visit, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA every 12 months. Participants diagnosed with TB > 3 months after starting ART were classified as incident cases. Time to event models with death as a competing risk, were used to derive the TB cumulative incidence function (CIF) after ART initiation, and assess time-updated factors associated with incident TB using a six month lag. RESULTS: A total of 2,636 PLWH contributing 24,229 person years (PY) of follow-up on ART were analysed. Median age was 32.0 (IQR 27.4-37.6) years; 67.5% were male. Median CD4 cell count at ART initiation was 264 (IQR 167-379) cells/mm3 and median follow-up duration was 7.6 (IQR 1.9-15.7) years. During follow-up, 113 PLWH developed TB. The probability of incident TB was 0.7%, 1.7%, 3.3% and 4.3%, at 1, 2, 5 and 7 years after ART initiation, respectively. TB CIF was highest among participants with CD4 < 50 cells/mm3. The overall crude incidence of TB was 4.66 (95% CI 3.87-5.60) per 1000 PY. Low CD4 count, BMI < 18 kg/m2, and substance use in the previous six months were significantly associated with incident TB. Incidence declined with time on suppressive ART, but remained higher than the Thai general population 7 years after ART initiation (2.2 vs 1.5/1000 PY, respectively). CONCLUSION: Despite a marked reduction in TB incidence following ART, ongoing TB risk remains high among PLWH, despite long-term suppressive ART. Those with low CD4 cell counts, who are underweight, or currently having substance abuse should be carefully monitored.

Antimicrobial resistance among uropathogens in the Asia-Pacific region: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in urinary tract infections (UTI) is a global public health problem. However, estimates of the prevalence of AMR, required for empirical treatment guidelines, are lacking for many regions. OBJECTIVES: To perform a systematic review and summarize the available information about AMR prevalence among urinary Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, the two priority uropathogens, in the Asia-Pacific region (APAC). METHODS: PubMed, EBSCO and Web of Science databases were searched for articles (2008-20), following PRISMA guidelines. The prevalence of resistance was calculated and reported as point estimate with 95% CI for antimicrobial drugs recommended in WHO treatment guidelines. Data were stratified by country and surveillance approach (laboratory- or population-based surveillance). The quality of included articles was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. RESULTS: Out of 2400 identified articles, 24 studies, reporting on 11 (26.8%) of the 41 APAC countries, met the inclusion criteria. Prevalence of resistance against trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, ciprofloxacin, and ceftriaxone ranged between 33% and 90%, with highest prevalence reported from Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Resistance against nitrofurantoin ranged between 2.7% and 31.4%. Two studies reported data on fosfomycin resistance (1.8% and 1.7%). Quality of reporting was moderate. CONCLUSIONS: We show very high prevalence estimates of AMR against antibiotics commonly used for the empirical treatment of UTI, in the limited number of countries in the APAC for which data are available. Novel feasible and affordable approaches that facilitate population-based AMR surveillance are needed to increase knowledge on AMR prevalence across the region.

Defining Outcomes of Tuberculosis (Treatment): From the Past to the Future.

Untreated active tuberculosis (TB) has a very high long-term mortality. Treatment of TB reduces mortality dramatically and should maximize cure, preventing ongoing transmission and TB sequelae. However, predicting the risk of failure and relapse is crucial for the management of individual patients and for the evaluation of effectiveness of programs. Various outcome definitions for drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB were developed, implemented, and endorsed since introduction of TB chemotherapy by the World Health Organization (WHO), mostly based on culture and smear results. They should be applicable for individual patient care, surveillance, and research. Definitions with focus on program evaluation differ from definitions to evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of regimens. Lack of sputum production at the later stage of treatment reduces the easy applicability of current definitions. Definitions of failure and cure are sometimes difficult to apply. Alternative approaches suggest culture positivity at 6 months or more of treatment as an indicator for failure. New definitions for cure including a relapse-free period posttreatment and reduced number of culture and smear results are considered. Increasing variation and individualization of treatment and its duration urgently require new approaches using pathogen- or host-specific biomarkers, which indicate risk of failure and define cure. Such biomarkers are under evaluation but still far from translation in clinical routine practice.

Prediction of anti-tuberculosis treatment duration based on a 22-gene transcriptomic model.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends standardised treatment durations for patients with tuberculosis (TB). We identified and validated a host-RNA signature as a biomarker for individualised therapy durations for patients with drug-susceptible (DS)- and multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB. METHODS: Adult patients with pulmonary TB were prospectively enrolled into five independent cohorts in Germany and Romania. Clinical and microbiological data and whole blood for RNA transcriptomic analysis were collected at pre-defined time points throughout therapy. Treatment outcomes were ascertained by TBnet criteria (6-month culture status/1-year follow-up). A whole-blood RNA therapy-end model was developed in a multistep process involving a machine-learning algorithm to identify hypothetical individual end-of-treatment time points. RESULTS: 50 patients with DS-TB and 30 patients with MDR-TB were recruited in the German identification cohorts (DS-GIC and MDR-GIC, respectively); 28 patients with DS-TB and 32 patients with MDR-TB in the German validation cohorts (DS-GVC and MDR-GVC, respectively); and 52 patients with MDR-TB in the Romanian validation cohort (MDR-RVC). A 22-gene RNA model (TB22) that defined cure-associated end-of-therapy time points was derived from the DS- and MDR-GIC data. The TB22 model was superior to other published signatures to accurately predict clinical outcomes for patients in the DS-GVC (area under the curve 0.94, 95% CI 0.9-0.98) and suggests that cure may be achieved with shorter treatment durations for TB patients in the MDR-GIC (mean reduction 218.0 days, 34.2%; p<0.001), the MDR-GVC (mean reduction 211.0 days, 32.9%; p<0.001) and the MDR-RVC (mean reduction of 161.0 days, 23.4%; p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Biomarker-guided management may substantially shorten the duration of therapy for many patients with MDR-TB.

Appropriateness of diagnosis and antibiotic use in sepsis patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Indonesia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the diagnostic and antibiotic treatment strategies for patients suspected of sepsis, in a tertiary hospital in Indonesia. This can identify areas for improvement in care provided, and inform diagnostic and antimicrobial stewardship activities within the hospital. METHODS: Retrospective review of medical records with regards to the diagnosis and management of adult patients with sepsis admitted to a tertiary hospital in Indonesia. We assessed the diagnostic process, and whether or not the antibiotic treatment provided was appropriate for the diagnosis. Appropriateness of antibiotic treatment was classified as being definite appropriate, probable appropriate, inappropriate, or unknown. RESULTS: The study included 535 adult patients, of whom 295 (55%) were diagnosed with a community-acquired sepsis, and 240 (45%) with a hospital-acquired sepsis. A specimen for culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was collected from three out of four patients (392/535). All but 10 patients had information on antibiotic treatment at the time of sepsis diagnosis. Of those, nearly 50% (257/525) of the patients received antibiotic treatment with unknown appropriateness because no cultures were taken (n = 141) or all cultures were negative (n = 116). Just 3.4% and 9.1% of the patients received definite or probable appropriate antibiotic treatment, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is a clear need in encouraging attending physicians to obtain the much-required blood cultures, or cultures from the suspected source of infection before empirical antibiotic treatment is started. This will improve the use of appropriate antibiotic treatment strategies, and contribute to antimicrobial stewardship.

Diapers as Promising Alternative Collection Method for Urine Specimens in Nursing Home Residents: A Noninferiority Study.

OBJECTIVE: There is unmet need for an easy, noninvasive urine collection method to diagnose urinary tract infections (UTIs) in nursing home residents suffering from urinary incontinence or cognitive impairments. UTIs are highly prevalent in nursing home residents, and urine specimen collection can be difficult. The objective of this study was to assess if urine specimens collected from super-absorbing incontinence pads (adult diapers) are a reliable collection method for UTI diagnosis. DESIGN: This was a paired noninferiority laboratory study, in which pairing refers to UTI diagnostics performed directly using clinical urine specimens (reference specimen) and indirectly using urine extracted from diapers (diaper specimen). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In this study, remnants of 250 clinical urine specimens were used to assess noninferiority in diagnosing UTIs, based on a 1-sided type I error of 2.5%, a power of 90%, and a noninferiority margin of 15%. METHODS: Urine specimens were poured on super-absorbing disposable adult diapers and extracted after 3 hours, to use for dipstick urinalysis and bacterial culture. UTIs were defined as presence of leukocytes and a positive bacterial culture. Noninferiority was assessed by calculating a Wald-type test statistic. RESULTS: Noninferiority was established for diagnosing UTIs in diaper specimens, and for each of its components (dipstick leukocyte detection and bacterial culture positivity). Positive bacterial cultures were found in 72 (29.0%) diaper specimens compared with 65 (26.2%) reference specimens (difference -2.8%, 97.5% CI -7.1% to 1.5%). Leukocytes were present in 162 (64.8%) diaper specimens, compared with 175 (70.0%) reference specimens (difference -5.7%, 97.5% CI: -10.6% to -0.7%). CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Our results on diagnosing UTIs, by dipstick analysis and bacterial cultures, using super-absorbing adult diapers are promising. Before translation into clinical practice, further studies are needed to evaluate the risk of bacterial contamination by wearing adult diapers, possibly resulting in overdiagnosis of UTI.

Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings.

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide.